弹性需求随机路网的可靠性

Reliability of Stochastic Road Network with Elastic Demand

路网的可靠性分析是反映路网性能的重要手段,但现有的可靠性指标还不能充分反映路网的性能。基于净经济效益概念,提出一种新的可靠性指标以描述弹性需求随机路网的性能。新的可靠性指标定义为路网的净经济效益满足给定水平的概率,是一种能够反映路网综合性能的指标。针对路段通行能力分布的不同假设,给出分别基于MonteCarlo法和解析法的两种不同算法求解可靠性模型,并讨论了两种方法的特点和应用范围,同时用一个简单的例子进行了说明。

<Abstrcat>A new reliability measurement for the road network with elastic demand was introduced.It is defined as the probability that the net economic benefit exceeds a specified level.The net economic benefit related reliability for road network is useful as a comprehensive performance indicator.According to different hypotheses about the link capacity distributions,two important and distinctive algorithms for solving the reliability model were presented.One was based on Monte Carlo method,and the other based on analytic method.The features and application scope of the two methods were discussed.Finally a simple illustrative example was provided to demonstrate the model.