一个典型欠发达沿海开放城市经济社会发展战略的研究

A SOCIO-ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY STUDY OF A TYPICAL UNDERDEVELOPED COASTAL OPEN CITY

本文以一个典型的欠发达沿海开放城市为背景,应用系统动力学理论和方法探讨了典型的沿海开放地区经济、社会、生态协调发展战略问题,应用所建立的系统动力学模型,进行了若干单项和综合政策试验,在单项政策模拟的基础上,文章分析了外来资金流入对经济增长的作用,严格控制生育率的效果,以及适当提高积累率对经济的长远效应;在单项政策分析的基础上,提出了三项综合性政策试验方案,并应用图表分析法比较了几项政策试验的结果.在政策分析的基础上,本文提出了欠发达沿海开放地区经济、社会、生态发展的若干战略与战术对策;最后指出,要实现区域经济持续、均衡的增长,必须从经济发展初期开始,并自始至终充分重视社会.经济、生态的协调发展.

This paper is concerned with the macro-socio-economic development strategy of a typical underdeveloped coastal open city. Based on the system analysis of the city's socio-ecopomy, a regional socio-econo-environment system dynamics model(RSEESDM) is developed, by applying the theory and methodology of system dynamics, for studying the coordinating development strategy problems of the socio-economy of the city. Based on the SD model several individual and synthetic policies are tested for policy analysis. The article indicates that the coordinating development of society, economy and environment should be sufficiently stressed from the early time of regional industrialization in order to achieve the continuous,steady and equilibriun bevelopment of the regional economy.