沥青公路网路面状况的宏观控制和预测——控制理论用于公路管理(Ⅰ)

MACROSCOPIC CONTROL AND PREDICTION FOR THE PAVEMENT CONDITION OF ASPHALT HIGHWAY NETWORKS

本文利用状态空间分析法构造了一个沥青公路网路面状况的宏观控制模型.这模型是一个线性规划,含有9n个变量和9n+2个约束方程(n是计划年数).它表明在计划年限内维修和改善沥青公路网的路面所需的最小总费用是初始路况、每年要求的路况、各种处理措施的单价、路况转移概率、计划年数和每年采取的最优策略的函数.根据这个模型编制的计算机程序,可供省或地区公路局用来制订它所管辖的整个沥青公路网路面的最优管理策略,使总费用达到最小而将路面状况维持在指定的水平,文中列举了应用这个计算机程序的实际例子.

In this paper, a macroscopic control model for the pavement condition of asphalt highway networks is formulated with State Space Analysis of Cybernetics. The model,which is a Linear Programming with 9n variables and 9n + 2 constraints(n= the number of planning years),shows that the minimum total cost of maintaining and rehabilitat- ing the pavements of a asphalt highway network over planning years is a function of initial pavement condition, desired pavement condition in each year, unit costs of various treatment alternetives, transition probabilities for pavement condition, the number of planning years and the adopted optimal policies in each year. On the basis of it,a computer program is written which can be used by a provincial or prefectural authority of highways, to determine the optimal management policies for the pavements of the entire asphalt highway network managed by it, while minimizing total cost and keeping pavement condition at or above some prescribed level. Practical examples of the use of the program are included.