中国物价走势分析及其宏观调控

China’s Price Index and Macroeconomic Control

正确预测物价及其走势,是宏观经济决策的重要依据之一。本文首先对居民消费结构、居民消费价格分类指数及居民消费价格指数的走势进行了分析;其次,综合考虑影响价格变化的各种因素,运用偏最小二乘回归方法与BP神经网络模型对2005年的居民消费价格指数等进行了模拟与预测;最后,基于模型提出了中国下一阶段宏观调控的对策建议。模型表明,中国物价走势已从货币控制为主,转为宏观经济变量结构性控制为主。本文力图通过对物价走势的分析与预测,为政府的宏观决策提供定量化的参考依据。

In this paper we try to analyze the change of China’s price level using the Consumer Price Index(CPI). The first part of this paper describes the composition and trend of China’s consumer price index. Next, we make a simulation and prediction for the consumer price index in 2005 with partial leastsquare regressionand BP nerve network model. It is concluded that in 2005, the consumer price index will fluctuate within a range of 3%~4%. Based on this predication, we propose some suggestions for the macro economic control policy in the next period. It is illustrated by the model that the price trend regulation in China has been implemented mainly by the structural control of macro economic variables as opposed to monetary control in the past.