基于期货理论的矿业权竞买定价模型研究

A Bidder's Pricing Model for Mineral Rights Auction Based-on Future Theory

我国国有矿业权的交易基本上是通过拍卖的方式进行的,投资人在竞买过程中必须不断更新自己的报价。因此,需要一个利于调整各种参数的矿业权评价模型,或称竞买定价模型。竞买定价需要一个包含投资人期望收益率、无风险利率、投资方案、资源量期望与回采率等直接影响矿业投资项目价值的因素在内的综合定价模型,以期货定价理论为基础推导出来的模型满足了投资者对竞买定价的这些要求,它与贴现现金流量法有相似之处,更适应于采矿投资项目的评价。

Transfer of mineral rights in China is mainly through auction market. To price a mineral right in auction, bidders are required to change their bids frequently. Any change of their bids means changes about the bidders' expectations of their income, the non-risk return rate forecast, the mineral's price forecast, the investment scheme, and the technical choices, and extraction rate estimate. A pricing model include all of these influencing factors will be helpful for bidders to make price decisions. Mineral right valuation based on future theory derivates such a model. Deduction of the continuous and noncontinuous forms of the model was put forward in the research.