全球地表(海表)前期温度与中国及华中地区夏季降水的关联

ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN EARLY GLOBAL SKIN TEMPERATURE AND SUMMER RAINFALL OVER CHINA AND ITS MIDDLE AREAS

用SVD方法分析了1月全球地表(海表)温度与中国及华中区域夏季降水场的关系,分析结果表明:1月热带地区地表(海表)温度与夏季长江中游降水关系最好,呈正相关。与新疆西北部、青海东北部、长江上游有弱的正相关,与山东大部分地区、浙江沿海地区有弱的负相关。前期热带海洋海表温度偏高,可能预示长江中游夏季降水偏多,反之亦然。由于分析的范围为全球的陆面和海面,因而其关联范围较已有成果有很大的扩展,不仅仅为热带西太平洋、印度洋和南海,而是整个热带地区,包括热带的海洋和陆地。预报信号也提前了4个月,可为预测长江中游夏季降水提供更长时效的参考和依据。

The relationships between January global skin (land and sea) temperature and summer rainfall over China, and over middle areas of China were studied by SVD. There were significant positive associations between tropical skin temperature and summer rainfall over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the correlations of the northwest of Xinjiang and the northeast of Qinghai, the upper reaches of the Yangtze River were very small positive, the correlations of most part of Shandong and coastal area of Zhejiang were very small negative. Maybe higher tropical sea surface temperature is an indication of excess of rainfall over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. It's the same the other way round. Since the analysis extended to global scope, more and wider correlations were found than that were found earlier, including tropical sea and land besides tropical western Pacific and Indian Ocean, south ocean of China. Precursory signals appear four months ahead of time and rainfall over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is predicted by these signals.