关于中东局势的回顾与展望

Retrospect and Prospect of Middle East Situation

伊拉克政治重建在美国的计划下按部就班地进行,但其国内安全形势严重恶化,暴力活动愈演愈烈,使得美国在短期内难以从伊脱身;巴勒斯坦领导人更迭,巴以双方表示了和谈的愿望,和谈有望重启,但谈判前景不容乐观;伊朗核问题极为突出,将是今后一年里中东局势紧张的新的重要根源.

Deputy Director of China Institute for Middle East Studies and Guest Researcher of CPDS. Iraq's political reconstruction is carried on following the prescribed order set by the U.S. plan. However, the domestic security situation in Iraq is severely worsen, and there appear more and sharper violences. It is very hard for the U.S. to extricate itself from Iraq's impasse. After the reshuffle of the Palestinian leadership, both Palestine and Israel expressed their willingness of peaceful talks. It is hopeful to restart peaceful negotiations, but the prospects of negotiation can hardly be optimistic. Iranian unclear issue is extremely protrudent and will likely be a new major source of the Middle East tension next year.