自然灾害风险评价初步研究

STUDY ON NATURAL DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT

自然灾害风险评价是减灾研究的重要组成部分,可为风险区土地的合理利用与投资、灾害预防与管理、灾害保险制度的建立以及灾期的快速评估和辅助决策提供科学依据。 本文在分析自然灾害风险评价发展历史的基础上,提出了自然灾害风险评价不仅应包括自然灾害发生的可能性,而且还应包括由此而引起的可能的后果的风险分析概念,井且探讨了将自然灾害与风险区价值及抗灾性能作为整体进行风险评价的理论和方法。

As an important part of natural disaster research, Natural disaster risk assessment (NDRA) is significant for the rational utilization of land and investment, disaster prevention, treatment and insurance, and quick assessment and auxiliary decision in the period of natural disaster. Based on the historic analysis of NDRA, it is defined for that which includes not only the probability of occurance of natural disaster, but also the risk analysis of probabal result from natural disaster. The author also theoretically approached the NDRA which put the natural disaster and the value of risk property and the property of resisting natural disaster in risk area all together.