登陆广东的热带气旋灾害评估和预测模式

THE EVALUATION AND FORCASTING MODELS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER LANDING ON GUANGDONG PROVINCE

本文通过对登陆广东省的热带气旋的灾害研究,建立了三个适合当地情况的灾害评估预测模式(ELM、HCM和HDM),拟合效果较为理想,可在热带气旋影响结束后的1～2天内对灾情作出客观评估。

The evaluation and forecasting models of the disaster have been established by the means of analysing and studying the disaster caused by the tropical cyclones landing on Guangdong Province, which are suitable under the local conditions, (i.e. ELM, HCM and HDM), the drafting results are more ideal, which can be used to evaluate the condition of the disaster objectively after the ending of the influence of the tropical cyclones 1 or 2 days.