灰色灾变预测模型的改进及实例分析

THE IMPROVEMENT OF GREY DISASTERS PREDICTION MODEL AND THE EXAMPLE

灾害不同于一般的预测对象,对其预测精度应予高度重视,而目前灰色灾变预测的预测精度,较高的仅仅是预测原点附近的一、二个数据。基于此,本文提出了准灰信息的概念,建立了准灰色灾变预测模型,并通过实例证明了运用准灰色灾变预测模型进行预测,可提高预测精度。

Disasters are different from the usual predicted objects, thus special attention should be pay to its predicted precision. But at present, the grey disaster prediction values aren't accurate sufficiently except for one or two data with higher accuracy near the prediction original point. This paper puts forward the concept of associate grey information and establishes the associate grey disaster prediction model. Finally, it is proved that the associate grey disaster prediction model can improve predicted precision.