山区铁路沿线暴雨泥石流预报的研究

STUDY ON PREDICTION FOR RAINSTORM DEBRIS FLOW ALONG MOUNTAIN DISTRICT RAILWAYS

泥石流发生是灾害性降雨过程和流域内不稳定的松散物产状与制约水、沙输移的河沟条件所决定的。解决泥石流预报中的时、空因素,可以通过每小时接收卫星云图的信息分析决定。对某一流域内能否发生泥石流的预报,则由降雨条件函数和地面环境动态函数组合的量级决定。本研究对铁路三个预报试验区、黄河水利委员会三个水土保持科学试验站的大量观测试验资料进行了统计分析,完善了“山区铁路暴雨泥石流中短期预报的研究”专题中提出的泥石流组合预报模式: Y=R·M 当 Y<25时:不发生泥石流的机率为83％; Y>35时:发生泥石流的机率为85％; Y=25～35时:介于发生与不发生之间。其中发生泥石流的机率占64％,不发生泥石流的机率占36％。 通过统计分析,建立了泥石流预报诸环节中各项影响因素的限界值划分标准和量化分级方法。基本上完成了组建铁路泥石流预报中心的基础研究工作。

Debris flow occurrence is determined by the follow factors calamitous rainstorm, unstable loose material state of valley and water-sand restrict condition. The time-space factor in debris flow prediction can be obtained by satellite cloud chart hourly chart. For a specific area debris flow can be predicted by the combination of raining function with ground environment dynamic function. In the paper, debris flow prediction model, mentioned in ' The Study For Rainstorm Debris Flow Short-Term Prediction Along Mountain District Railways', has been perfected based on statistical analysis of three prediction experimental stations of railway and three water and soil conservation experimental stations of Yellow River Conservancy Commission. Y = R*M When Y <25 The probability of debris flow occurrence is 17% Y >35 The probability of debris flow occurrence is 85% 25< Y <35 The probability of debris flow occurrence is 64% Based on the statistical analysis, the differentiaties and numerates standard of factors critical value in debris flow prediction has been built. This work basically complete the fundament study for the composition of railway debris flow prediction center.