分形论与自然灾害研究——地震、洪涝灾害中的分形研究

FRACTAL AND NATURAL DISASTERS RESEARCH——FRACTAL RESEARCHES IN SEISMIC AND FLOOD DISASTERS

在多种概念和方法相互撞击和汇合中诞生的分形论,揭示了现实世界中具有深刻理论意义和广泛现实基础的幂指数律,给自然灾害研究提供了新的方法和途径。本文在初步介绍分形论有关基本概念的基础上,回顾了分形论在地震、洪涝灾害中的一些应用和新近进展,展示了分形论在自然灾害研究中的前景。 与其它许多学科一样,自然灾害中的分形研究是初步的。本文认为,下面几方面问题尚待深入探讨和研究:①自然灾害的分形特征研究;②自然灾害分形特征的成因与机制研究;③自然灾害的时间分形研究,④自然灾害分形模型研究。

Fractal, which was born in the mutural confliction and convergence of multi -concept and multi-method in modern science, reveals an important power-law which has profound theoretical significance and broad practical foundation. Fractal may give a new opportunity to natural disasters research. With a brief introduction to the basic concepts of fractal, we reviewed the recent accomplishments of the applications of fractal to sismic and flood disasters in this paper. It shows that fractal has good prospets in natural disasters research. Like many other scientific fields, fractal research in natural disasters is only beginning, the following issues should be further studied: 1) fractal characteristics of natural disasters; 2) the genetic mechanism of fractal characteristics: 3) fractal for time series of natural disasters; 4) fractal model of natural disasters.