基于随机微分方程的河道行洪风险分析

Risk analysis of flood flow in river by using stochastic differential equation

将各种不确定性因素（包括随机初值条件、随机系数和随机作用项等）引入河道水面线的推求过程，建立了计算河道水面线的随机微分方程。运用Ｆｏｋｋｅｒ－Ｐｌａｎｃｋ方程，求解河道水面线过程的概率密度。在此基础上，进行了河道行洪的风险分析，为堤防的安全、合理设计提供了条件。

After introducing various uncertain factors including a stochastic initial condition,a stochastic coefficient and a stochastic input term into calculating program of flow profiles in river, a stochastic differential equation is established. By using the Fokker - Planck equation, the probability density distributions of flow profiles in river are solved. Then,the risk analysis of flood flow in river is presented, and a safe and reasonable design method for flood protection embankment is suggested.