利用马可夫链法预测桥梁使用年限

BRIDGE SERVICE LIFE PREDICTION MODEL USING THE MARKOV CHAIN

本文阐述了马可夫链技术在估计桥梁使用年限工的应用。桥梁使用状态的变化是一个随机过程,因此,桥梁的使用年限与其状态变化的概率有关,一种利用马可夫链预测桥梁使用年限的模型已经发展到能够反映桥梁状态的随机变化和其使用年限之间的相关性。

This paper describes the application of Markov chain technique in estimating bridge service life. The change of bridge conditions is a stochastic process and , therefore, the service life of bridges is related to the probabilities of condition transitions. A bridge service life prediction model , using the Markov chain, was developed to reflect the stochastic nature of bridge condition and service life.