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江淮气旋大风预报研究 被引量:3

The Forecast Research of Cyclone Gale in Jianghuai Region
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摘要 江淮气旋大风预报研究的结果表明:气旋大风的预报实际上就是冷空气南下造成地面加压与气旋东移造成地面降压,这两个因素所造成气压梯度发展变化的预报。还介绍用天气学原理建立的大风预报模式,以及用数理统计方法判别有无强风的预报,经过历史拟合和试报,在预报气旋大风中有一定的准确性。 The result of the forecast research of Jianghuai cyclone gale indicated that the forecasting cyclone gale is to predict the variation of barometric pressure gradient caused by the pressure increase on the ground generated by South advancing cool air and the pressure decrease on the ground created by east moving cyclone.The gale prediction model based on synoptic meterology principle and the prediction for whether or not gale occurs by mathe metical statistics are introduced in the paper.A certain accuray of forecasting cyclone gale has been attained via historic fairing and test prediction.
作者 杨良华
出处 《交通部上海船舶运输科学研究所学报》 1995年第2期54-64,共11页
关键词 天气预报模型 温带气旋 大风 预报 航海气象学 Weather forecast model,strength in peak region,cold advection,warm advection,barometric pressure gradient,forcast index, coding
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