应用数值预报产品作热带气旋暴雨落区预报

USING NWP PRODUCTION TO FORECAST TORRENTIAL RAIN REGION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE

本文对华东热带气旋暴雨形势分类及物理量合成对比分析，初步得到它们彼此间的差异和各物理量的自身特点，并利用数值产品将统计结果和预报员的实际经验，对落区进行动态综合诊断，并建立预报热带气旋暴雨落区的数值产品释用的业务系统，经过实例试验，落区的预报结果与实况比较接近，效果较明显。

In the paper, through distinguishing situation of the torrential rain of tropical cyclone in the east China into classes and analysing integrated physical quantities, we get its differences each other and the self - features of each physical quantities. Using statistical results of NWP production and forcastor's practical experience, we also diagnose torrential rain region. The daily work system of using NWP production to forcast torrential rain region of tropical cyclone is set up. Through the experiment of the practical example, we find that the forecasting torrential rain region is near the the actual condition and the vesult is quite satisfied.