经济计量模型气象应用探讨──气象学与计量经济学

AN APPLICATLON OF ECONOMETRIC MODEL PROBE INTO METEOROLOGY──METEOROLOGY AND ECONOMETRICS

本文用经济计量模型（又称关联模型），对1954－1984年台风在中国福建省造成的灾害损失，建立了一个估测模式；又从台风个例中采集时序资料，利用关联模型作台风路径、强度和风速的24h、48h和72h预报，在前一工作的基础上，对模型的计算方案作了改进，考虑了内生变量协方差阵的影响。正式提出“多维动态关联模型”的新概念，继而作了以下三方面的工作：1、三种时效的拟合和预报及它们的统计分析，2、模拟观测误差产生均匀分布的随机数，作了若干次随机模拟试验，初步讨论了模型的稳定性；3、就台风个例中反映出来的问题，提出了有关本模型的一些待解决的问题和建设性的意见。

We have applied the econometric model to meteorology and established an econometric model for estimation of losses in typhoon disaster in Fujian Province, China, from 1954 to 1984. And then we research and apply the new termed 'Multivariate Dynamic Interdepen dent Model'(MDIM) to prediction for typhoon track, intensity and wind-speed in 24h,48h and 72h, respectively. Based on previous work, we improve algorithm with considering co variance of endogenous variables. And then, we work in following three aspects: 1. Back ward test and prediction for 24h, 48h and 72h and its statistical analysis. 2.random simulation with adding uniform distributed random number to observation and its stability. 3. according to the probleme with typhoon in the model, we raise some constructive suggestions and ques tions to solve later