摘要
运用技术经济的观点和时间序列分析方法，建立了预测单车最佳更新期的指数平滑数学模型，从而解决了运材汽车单车的最佳更新期和寿命周期费用的事前预测与计算方法，为更新决策和制定更新计划提供了可靠依据．将取得明显的经济效益。
pplying technology economic viewpoints and time sequential analysis methods,themathematical model of exponential smooth of predicting single auto optimum renewal period was found-ed.It solved the forecast in advance and caculation methods of the optimum renewal period and lifetimeperiod costs of log transportation single auto and provided reliable basis for renewing decisions aiid for-mulating plans.It will obtain obviotis economic benifits.
