基于可能度满意度的系统目标分解方法

The Method of Systematic Project Analysis on the Basis of the Degree of Likelihood and That of Gratification

运用多目标决策方法，通过构造简单的可能度函数和满意度函数，并按一定规则综合为可能－满意度函数，作为综合评价指标。在系统生产总目标确定情况下，遵循等可能－满意度决策规则关于各级子系统分配总目标。该方法的关键在于合理地确定系统的可能度函数和满意度函数，以及如何将二者并合为可能－满意度函数。通过实例说明该方法是科学的。运用可能－满意度评价指标不但可进行正常的目标分解，还有如下几个方面的用途：（１）可用于评价总目标的合理性，判别总目标能否实现；（２）可为子系统如何审报和接受某一生产目标提供一个合理的参考标准；（３）通过该综合评价指标的分析可以找出制约生产发展的关键因素，从而有的放矢地加以解决。

According to multiproject decision method,and by simple structure function of the degreeof likelihood and that of gratification,the paper synthesized the degree of likelihood-gratification functionas evaluation index. The key to this method is that the function of the degree of likelihood and that ofgratification are defined reasonably and how to merge them as likelihood-gratification degree function.The practice shows that the method is scientific.By the use of this evaluation index,it not only carries onnormal purpose resolved but also has some useas the following:(1)It can be used in evaluting total pur-pose’s reasollableness.(2)It can provide a reasonable reference standard on examining and acceptingsome product purpose for daughter system.(3)According to analysis of the synthetical evaluation index,the key factors constrained producing can be found out,and the problem canbe solved with a definite ob-ject in view.