气候变暖对我国水稻生产可能影响的数值模拟试验研究

A NUMERICAL SIMULATION STUDY ON THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE RICE PRODUCTION IN CHINA

根据水稻田间试验资料和历史气候资料，对水稻模式（ＯＲＹＺＡｌ）进行分析验证，并在此基础上，利用随机天气模型将ＧＣＭｓ（ＧＦＤＬ、ＵＫＭＯＨ和ＭＰＩ）与作物模式相嵌套，以数值模拟试验方法探讨了气候变化对我国水稻生产（包括早稻、中稻和晚稻）的可能影响，结果表明，在未来气候情景下，我国的水稻产量将有不同程度的下降（平均减产幅度早稻为３．７％，中稻为１０．５％，晚稻为１０．４％）．温度升高使发育加快，生长期缩短，是水稻减产的主要原因，但由于各季水稻生产时空分布的不同，气候变化对它们的影响也不相同，因此，随着气候的变暖，适时地调整种植制度、品种状况和生产活动是非常必要的。

Based on the validation and sensitivity analyses of a rice growth simulation model(ORYZAI),and with the linkage of a stochastic weather generator between thepredicted climatic scenarios of GCM9(GFDL,UKMOH and MPI)and ORYZAl,numerical simulation experiments were carriedout on the potential impacts of warmingclimate on the rice production in China;The results show that rice yield will decreasewith various degrees for all the cropping patterns(in average,early , middle and laterrice yield will decrease 3.7%, 10.5%and l0.4%, respectively ).It is because hightemperature will speed up the development rate of rice and;horten its growth duration。But there are some differences for each cropping pattern because of their differences intemporal and spatial distributions.So,it is necessary to adapting cropping systems,cuItivars and farming practice to the warming climate timely。