农村用电量的宏观预测

Forecast for the Rural Electricity-consumption

本文用相关分析和层次分析方法找出影响农村用电量的主要因素，将农村用电量归结为多变量输入单变量输出系统，采用离散线性动态系统模型对我国农村用电量进行了预测，预测结果表明我国农村用电量年递增率为１０％以上。

This paper uses the method of relative analyzing and analytic hierarchy process tofind the main factors which affect the rural electricity-consumption,and sums the rural elec-tricity-consumption up as a system which has multi-character input but sole-character output.By using the model of the discrete linear dynamic system,this paper forecasts the rtiral electri-city-consumption in China.The forecasted results show that rural electricity-consumption inChina increases by more than ten percent every year.[