船舶使用寿命中无失效数据的分析

The Analysis of the Zero-failure Data for Ship Life

收集到某型号船舶寿命的一组数据，它是无失效的．假定船舶使用寿命服从Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布，ｐ＿ｋ＝Ｐ（Ｔ＜τ＿ｋ）为船舶在τ＿Ｋ前失效概率，取ｐ＿ｋ的先验分布为对数分布，即π（ｐ＿ｋ）＝－１ｎｐ＿ｋ，０＜ｐ＿ｋ＜１；或０，其他，运用Ｂａｙｅｓ方法得到ｐ＿ｋ的Ｂａｙｅｓ估计，然后通过诸点（），用加权最小二来乘法配一条Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布曲线，最后获得其参数ｍ和η的估计ｍ和η，并且得到该型号船舶可靠性的估计。

We have collected the data of ship life tests.The result is all zero-failure.The lifedistribution of ship is supposed to be Weibull distribution,The failure probability of ship is p_k=P(T<τ_k),the prior distribution of p_k is a logarithmic distribution,that is π(p_k)=-1np_k,0<p_k< 1;or 0,otherwise. The Bayesian estimate p_k of p_k is obtained by Bayesian method.Acurve of Weibull distribution to the points(τ_k,p_k)is fitted by weighted least square mehod.Last the estimate m and η of the prameter m and ηare obtained,and the estimate of reliability ofship is also obtained.[