南极南设得兰群岛近百年年平均气温变化趋势

Change Trends of the Mean Annual Air Temperature in the Last Century in the South Shetland Island， Antarctica

本文通过对１９９４年以来南设得兰群岛三个气象站的观测资料与南极洲和亚南极地区最长的年平均气温序列（奥卡达斯站观测）的相关分析，建立了南设得兰群岛１９０４年以来的年均气温变化序列。５年滑动平均结果表明，南设得兰群岛以本世纪５０年代为界，后期比前期明显变暖，增温变幅为０．８℃左右。其相对寒冷阶段为１９１０－１９２０年间、２０、４０和５０年代末。最暖期为５０年代中和８０年代。８０年代年平均气温最高值比多年平均值高２．２℃。波动最大的５０年代中，５年最大变幅约为３．７℃。

In this paper，the series of mean annual air temperature（MAAT）in the South ShetlandIslands since 1904 were set up by the correlation analysis of the data recorded at meteorologi- cal stations in the South Shetland Islands since 1944 and the Orcadas，a station with the long-est continuous record in the Antarctica and subantarctic regions． Five year moving averagecurves of the MAAT show that 0．8℃ waiming started in the 1950s．The comparatively coldperiods were in the middle of 1910s－20s，the end of 1920s，the end of 1940s and the end of1950s； the waimer periods were the mid－1950s and 1980s．The MAAT in the 1980s was 2.2℃higher than that from 1904 to 1990．The largest amplitude in five years of the 1950s，when thetemperature fluctuation was in its peak,was about 3．7℃。The authors also note 17 anomaliesof the MAAT in the South Shetland Islands since 1904， and compare the calculated resultswith those measured in the Orcadas meteorological station.