海运港口货物吞吐量预测的PHQDF模型

PHQDF model on marine port handling quantity forecasting

针对目前国内外所使用的港口货物吞吐量的定量预测方法所存在的问题，依据经济计量学和控制理论的原理和方法，建立了一种新的预测海运港口货物吞吐量的动态ＰＨＯＤＦ模型。该模型系统地综合了海运货物吞吐量的历史变化趋势，腹地的社会经济发展状况及政治、政策、心理和技术等各方面因素，克服了以往预测方法的不足。通过实例验证，该模型具有较高的预测精度和较好的预测效果。

To counter the questions there are the quantitive forecasting method of port handlingquantity by using in the world,according to the principle and the method of econometrics andcontrol theory,a new dynamic PHQDF model of the forecasting marine goods handlingquan-tity is set.In this medel,the factors in the history varying tend of marine goods handlingquantity,the developing state of the society and the economy in the hinterland,the polilics,the policy,the psychology and the technology are considered synthetically and systematically,and the insufficient of in the past forecasting method are overcome,By the example testing,there are the higher forecasting precision and thebetter forecasting result.