近百年全球气候变暖的分析

An Analysis of Global Warming during the Last One Hundred Years

本文对比分析了ＩＰＣＣ，Ｖｉｎｎｉｋｏｖ，Ｊｏｎｅｓ及Ｈａｎｓｅｎ的北半球，南半球及全球共２个地面温度序列，以及中国的气温序列。资料为１８８０—１９９１年。近百年气候变暖的速度为０．５℃／１００ａ。温度的长期变化趋势占序列总方差６０％以上。但气候变暖有突变性，在１８９０年代中，１９２０年代中及１９７０年代末有３次突然气候变暖。分析表明，总的变暖趋势ＣＯ２浓度及太阳活动有密切关系。火山活动也可能有一定作用。但前两次突然变暖可能与火山活动沉寂有关。最后一次突然变暖则可能是温室效应加剧的结果。

Annual surface temperature series of IPCC, Vinnikov, Jones and Hansen for the hemisphere findthe globe and that for China are analysed. Data set covered 1880 to 1991. Linear trend of the warmingwas about 0.5℃ / 100 a. The low frequency variation accounts for more than 60% of the total van, nceof the series. Abrupt warming was found in the middle of 1890s, 1920s and by the end of 1970s. 5,faractivity and concentration of CO2 closely correlated with the temperature variations. Volcanism tlsocontributed to the warming. However, the abrupt warming in the 1890s and 1920s seem to relate t4 thecessation of volcano eruptions and that by the end of 1970s may be caused by the enhanced greenh )useeffect, though the intensification of solar activity may also take part in.