水平井钻井周期的灰色预测

GREY PREDICTING OF DRILLING TIME IN HORIZONTAL WELLS

在实现井身参数等距离化的基础上，对灰色系统中的ＧＭ（１，１）模型进行了改造。改造后的ＧＭ（１，１）模型适用于以井身参数为自变量的非时间序列，将灰色预测技术引入了水平井钻井周期的预测之中。作者将水平井剖面划分为直井段、斜井段和水平井段３个组成部分，通过１３口水平井的原始数据，演示了对ＧＭ（１，１）模型的改造过程，并得出了各井段令人满意的离散响应方程，实现了水平井钻井周期的灰色预测。

GM(1,1)is one kind of grey mdel.In this paper, GM(1,1) was reformed on the ba-sis of making the parameter be in accordance with the length of well bore. The new GM(1,1)can deal with the parameter that is not time alignment,so GM(1,1)is led into well-drilling time prediction. At the beginning the well bore is divided into three parts. They arevertical hole,inclined hole and level hole. Then the process that the GM(1,1) is improved isdemonstrated by firsthand data. The ideal predicting outcome is written at the end.