华北北部强震活动性研究

RESEARCHES ON SEISMICITY IN THE NORTHERN AREA OF NORTH CHINA

华北北部是指39.0—41.0°N,114.0—117.0°E的区域,其历史强震活动呈现出百年尺度的轮回(M_s≥6 3/4)和10年尺度的幕式(M_s≥5.0)的不均匀过程。应用上述特征和强震活动重复性的伯努利模型,预期在2005年前该区发生6级地震的可能性很大。

In this paper the northern area of North China is defined as a geographic area of lat. 39.0-40.0°N, long. 11.4-117.0°E, where the historical strong earthquake activities show an inhomogeneous process of seismic cycles ( Ms≥63/4) with hundreads years and seismic episodes (Ms≥5.0) with tens years. Based on the above-described features and a Bernoulli model of strong earthquake recurrence, the occurrence probability of strong earthquakes with magnitude of 6 might be very high in the research area before 2005.