区域PRED的系统分析与决策制定方法

THE METHOD FOR REGIONAL PRED SYSTEM-ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

人口问题、资源问题、环境问题和发展问题是当今世界人地关系的四大焦点问题，它们相互联系、相互影响，因而解决它们的关键在于实现ＰＲＥＤ四者的协调发展。从定义“区域ＰＲＥＤ系统”这一概念入手，进而运用系统科学的分析方法，可以较为深入地探讨区域ＰＲＥＤ协调发展的相互作用与内部信息联系机制。在此基础上，通过数学分析、模型仿真和多目标决策评判等方法的逐步深入，可以构筑起区域ＰＲＥＤ协调发展的辅助决策支持系统的运行框架。

Population,Resource,Environment and Devdopment(PRED)are four foci of the human─environment relationship. There are coinplex relationships and feedback among them.Therefore,the key to solving these problems is to make PRED develop co─ordinately andharmoniously.By defining the concept of“Regionhal PRED System”and applying the system-arialysis method,we can explore the mechanism of the interplay and feedback of the PREDsystem.On the basis of this,the frainework of the subordinate decitsion-making support sys-tem(SDSS)for the regionol PRED coordinated development can be constructed,including theprocesses of quantitative analysis,modelling,simulation,and multio-ective decision evalua-tion.