全球人口增长及其地质环境变化

REGULARITY GOVERNING WORLD POPULATION GROWTH AND ITS GEO-ENVIRONMENT CHANGE

论述了全球人口及城市人口增长与发展的基本规律，根据历史记录数据建立了其预测指数方程。预测结果表明，２１世纪５０年代全球人口将超过１００亿；且其城市人口将于２０２５年发展为７９亿。论证了人口高速增长与全球地质环境变化紧密相关。讨论了农业地质环境变化──谷物供应问题以及可耕土地资源减少和水土资源流失、沙漠化问题及工业矿产、能源、资源与水资源紧缺以及其地质环境变化等问题，相应于地质环境变化问题建立了预测方程，并给出了预测结果。结果表明全球性问题是严重的，需要缓减问题的系列决策和部门之战略规划加以控制。

Basic regularity of world population growth and its development of whole cities population and geo-environmental change are stated and discussed.According to the historical record data,some exponent equations for prediction are built.The predicted results denoted that for world population growth it will surpass greatly 100×108 in 2050 and world cities population will develop to 79×108 in 2025.The relations between high growth rate of population and world environment change are stated.The agricltural geo-environment change-problems of grain supply,tillble land resources with decline,water-soil-resources erosion loss(SWREL)and lands going to be desertification ones,etc.,are reviewed emphatically in the paper.The industrial geo-environment change-problems of crisis of geo-energy resources such as natural gas,crude oil,of mineral resources,of water resources have been faced seriously with human beings .At last ,the nuclear waste disposal and radioactive health hazards are examined bythe processing of uranium ore deposit in mining industry.Corresponding with environmental change problems,the argument has been given and forecast equations are built as well as forecasted results showed separately.To sum up,the world problems are considered more serious by the fact and prediction.