气候变化的“地心说”──关于短期气候预测的新思维

“GEOCENTRIC THEORY”OF CLIMATE CHANGE─ a New Perspective on Short─term Climate

通过对短期气候观测研究历史的回顾，提出了建立以“地圈”（包括地壳、地幔、地核）为主体的地气耦合模式，用来作为预测短期气候变化的方法。地球系统各子系统中，地圈的质量是水圈的１０￣３倍，是气圈的１０￣６倍，是生物圈的１０￣８倍。亦即整个地球系统中９９％以上的质量集中在地图中。“地圈”（特别是岩石圈）存在着各种时间尺度的变化，所有这些变化必然影响到大气圈。对大气中≤１０￣（－２）年的波动，大气圈本身的能耗水平，一般说来比岩石圈所给予的要高得多。故可将大气圈近似地处理为孤立系统。但对１０￣（－１）～１０￣１年的短期气候变化，“地圈”是否处于中心地位？文中给出了一些研究结果，证明了短期气候（１０￣（－１）～１０￣１年）变化的根本原因在地球内部，大气圈基本上只是处于一种响应状态。气候变化是地球系统的变化在大气圈子系统中的反映，并将其称为“气候变化的地心说”。为了建立“地心说”预报体系，最后提出了几，点建议：（１）扩充现有的资料观测和收集系统；（２）建立以地幔动力学为主体的地气耦合模式；（３）坚持“理论联系实际”，不断提高，最终建立数值模式。

After reviewing the history of short-term climate prediction study, the paper pro-posed a new method for predicting short-term climate change by using Earth-atmospherecoupled model which is centered in geosphere(including crust , mantle and core).In sub-systems of Earth-system, geosphere is 10￣3 times in quality of hydrosphere, 10￣6times of atmosphere,10￣8 times of biosphere. Geosphere is 99.9%in quality of all sub-sys-tems of Earth-system. There are various time scale vibrations in geosphere(especially inlithosphere). All these vibrations affect atmosphere inevitably. For the changes of timescale shorter than 10￣(-2) years in atmosphere, the rate of energy dissipation of atmosphere ismuch more bigger than the rate of energy supplying from lithosphere to atmosphere. So,in these time scales , atmosphere may be considered as an isolated system approximately.But for 10￣(-1)～10￣1 years short-term climate change, does geosphere act as dominate factor?The paper had given some results to show that the basic cause of short-term(10￣(-1) ～10￣1 years)climate change is in the solid Earth , and atmosphere is in response state. Andclimate change is the reflection of change of Earth-system in atmosphere. It is called“geo-centric theory”of climate change.In order to construct a new prediction system based on this theory. Three proposalshad been suggested,1)enlarging data observating and collecting system; 2 ) developing anew Earth-atmosphere coupled model based on mantle dynamics as main part; 3 ) keepingthe unity of theory and practice, deepening our understanding, finally, developing unmeri-cal model.