论延庆盆地北缘断裂带的分段与地震预测

ON SEGMENTATION OF THE FAULT ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN MARGIN OF YANQING BASIN AND EARTHQUADE PAREDICTION

依据古地震学的断层习性资料，提出延庆盆地北缘断裂带５个段落的分段模型。各个段落的构造地貌学特征具有明显差异。４个主要不连续性形成段落边界：断层分叉和断层弯曲是非持久性段落边界，而凸出体和雁行断错是持久性段落边界。预期强震（Ｍ≥７）的发生时间在未来１０００～２０００ａ内，最有可能的地点为断层段落Ⅱ。

From the data of fault behaviors obtained in paleoseismological study,a segmentation modelfor five segments of the fault zone along the northern margin of Yanqing basin is suggested． Thetectonic geomorphological qeatures of these segments are apparently different． Four major discon-tinuities on thefault zone formed the segment boundaries, of which the bifurcation and the bend-ing are nonpersistent， while the salient and the en echelon offset are persistent．The future largeearthquake （M≥7）will probably be espected to occur on segment Ⅱ in an interval of 1000～2000years．