滇东重点监视区Q值随时间变化的研究

RESEARCH ON Q-VALUE VARIATION WITH TIME IN KEY MORNITORING REGION, EAST YUNNAN

本文根据Ａｋｉ的尾波散射理论，在前几年圈定的滇东重点监视区范围内量取了１１个台近站２５００个地震尾波资料，计算了各台在研究的大区域及６个小区域内的随时间变化的Ｑ值，并分析了其随时间变化的特征，得出滇东重点监视区在未来３至５年内不会有７级以上大震发生的危险性。

Based on the code wave scattering theory of K.Aki and using earthquake code wave data of ahout 2500 from 11 stations within the key mornitoring region of east Yunnan delimited ago several years, this paper calculates the Q-values varied with time at each station in studied large and six small areas, analyses their variation characteritics with time and deduces a conclusion that large earthquake with more than Ms 7 will not occur within the key monitoring region of east Yunnan in futrue 3-5 years .