地震动态空区法与中、强震预报

THE SEISMICITY DYNAMIC GAP METHOD AND PREDICTION OF MODERATE OR STRONG EARTHQUAKES

本文在组合模式和立交模式的基础上提出了预报中、强地震的动态空区法，应用该法对我国大震进行了回顾性检验。结果表明，这一方法比单空区确定地震危险区有重要改进。文中还讨论了由动态空区出现的频次增多、地震共轭条带以及中小地震活动性加剧等判定震源断层的致锁和解锁时间，由此预测未来主震的震级和发震时间。

In this paper we have proposed a seismicity dynamic gap method topredict moderate or strong earthquakes based on the combination and stereoscopic models. We made a review test to some moderate or strong earthquakes in China which indicated that the above methods have more important improvement for predicting main shocks than single seismic gap method.We also have discussed judging locked and unlocked times of source faultsby frequency increase of the seismicity dynamic gap, seismic conjugate beltsand seismicity sharp increase before moderate and strong earthquakes fromwhich the magnitude and occurence time of future main shock can bepredicted .