摘要
本文引入算法复杂性度量C(n)判别震群活动是否具有前兆意义。选取1971-1993年间3.2≤Mma≤x5.0,N≥12的震群序列,用10小时段,五种震级状态计算C(n),发现当C(n)≥8时,与其后164天内四川及西南部周边附近5级以上强震相关。R评分具有97.5%置信水平。同时,分析、比较了C(n)与参数b、K、U、H的预报能力,认为C(n)有一定的预报效能且高于H、U和K。
Algorithm complexity C(n) was introduced in this paper to identifywhether the swarm activity makes precursory sense. Swarm sequences withN≥12 and 3.2≤Mmax≤5.0 from 1971 to 1993 are used, C(n) was calculatedby 5 magnitude states With a step of 10 hours. It is found that C(n)≥6is correlated with strong earthquakes of M≥5 in 164 days occurred inSichuang and neighboring areas. Reliability reaches as many as 97.5%.Meanwhile, the prediction abilities of C(n) and parameters b, K, U, Hhave been analysed and compared that C(n) has a certain prediction efficacyhigher than H, U and K.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第2期135-142,共8页
Journal of Seismological Research
关键词
地震活动性
地震群
预报效能评估
地震
C(n)
Seismic activity
Earthquake swarm
Evaluation of prediction ability
Sichuang