地电阻率瞬时突变序列变化与临震预报

VARIATIONS OF TEMPORAL MUTATION SEQUENCE OF THE EARTH RESISTIVITY AND IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

本文采用断裂力学观点，分析研究了一些临震预报实验结果与地电实际观测资料。发现在强震与部分中强震前，震中附近的台站，除能观测到有关地震的地电阻率日突变序列的短期异常变化外，在瞬时突变序列上还能看到临震前明显的突变现像。还是震前三个月里的最大瞬时突变。从它的出现至发震所需的时间，将随震中距的减少而缩短，且与震级有关。对于强震它多集中出现在震前一个月内，中强震为十天内。并有由外围向震中收缩的趋势。其平均收缩速度强震要比中强震快得多。此外，文中还讨论了利用瞬时突变序列判断地震类型与强余震监视的可能性以及具体的临震预报方法。

Some results about impending earthquake prediction and a large amountof observed data have been analysed in this paper from the view of fracturemechanics. It is found that at stations around the epicenters, relativelyobvious temporal mutation of earth-resistivity can be observed in temporalmutation sequency besides short-term anomalous variation of daily mutationsequence before strong and several moderate earthquakes. Generally it reachesthe maximum three months before earthquake. The duration time from themaximum to earthquake occurrence tends to shorten with the decrease ofepicentral distance and has relations with earthquake magnitude. Most ofthe cases appear about a month before strong earthquakes and about tendays before moderate earthquakes which show a tendency contracting fromperipheral area to epicenter with feature of shrinkage rate of strong earthquake being much faster than moderate one. Moreover, possibility to determine the patterns of strong earthquakes and moniter aftershocks by temporalmutation sequence and concrete method of impending prediction are discussedin this paper.