中国大陆大震形势研究

SEISMIC TREND STUDIES ON CHINA CONTINENT

本文分析了１５００─１９９４年间中国大陆７级以上地震活动的时空分布特征，得出强弱活跃期相间交替出现，地震轮回内活跃期与一个轮回持续时间之比服从准黄金分割，活跃期具三幕式结构，一个活跃段一般仅有一个主体活动区、１─２个参与活动区等结论。据此分析认为，１９７７年后中国大陆已进入第四个轮回的相对平静期，并将持续３０年左右。

Through analyses on seismic time-space distribution of China continental earthquakes with M≥7 from 1500 to 1994, some conclusions have been made that weak and strong seismicities appear alternatively; the ratio of active period to seismic cycle duration within a cycle obeys quasigolden section; seismic active periods have structures of 3 episodes,generally there exists only a main active area with 1-2 participated areas in a active segment. According to above analyses, China continent has entered relative quiescent period of 4th cycle from 1977, which will last 30 years or so.