摘要
目的：研究甲肝流行的发展趋势，以便科学地制定防疫规划。方法：采用两状态非齐次马尔可夫链分析甲肝年龄分布资料，首先建立了不同类型甲肝流行过程的可靠的统一评估模式。结果：１９９０年代西安、济南、哈尔滨、呼和浩特四个北方城市的ＭＲＲ＿（１－）以及重庆市的ＭＲＲ＿（１０－）接近或高于４０，重庆、哈尔滨的总体ＭＲＲ高于１６０，达到危险警戒线。结论：以上各年龄组的人群应作为优先免疫接种的对象，重庆、哈尔滨二城市应作为九十年代甲肝重点监测和防治城市。
PurpOse : The aim of this research is to
study hepatitis A virus epidemic process in China so as toprovide scientific decision support
for a more effective plan in the prevention and control of hepatitis A epi-demic, Method :
Reliable and unified evaluation model of different patterns of hepatitis A epidemic processwere
established for the first time by using two- state non-homogeneout Markov chain to analyze the
age distribution of hepatitis A virus epidemic. Results :It was found that in 1990s Markov Risk
Rate(MRR)_(1-)inXi’an,Jinan,Ha’erbin and Huhehaote,and MRR_(10-) in Chongqing were as
high as or higher than 40 respec-tively,Total MRR in Chongqing and Ha’erbin were higher
than 160,which was higher than the warning val-ue. Conclusion : All age groups in the
above-mentioned cities are strongly recommended to be vaccinated atfirst. Chongqing and
Ha’erbin should be taken as high risk cities of hepatitis A virus epidemic in the 90’s
andtherefore should be under close surveillance
出处
《第四军医大学学报》
1995年第1期62-65,共4页
Journal of the Fourth Military Medical University
基金
中国预防医学科学院资助
关键词
流行病学
随机过程
甲型肝炎
hepatitis A virus
theoretical
epidemiology
stochastic process
