以高阶累积量和高阶正交多项式级数展开式为基础的电力生产随机概率模拟方法

CUMULANT BASED PROEABILISTIC SIMULATION OF POWER PRODUCTION USING HIGHER ORDER ORTHOGONAL POLYNOMIAL EXPANSIONS

本文介绍了快速电力生产模拟软件包ＥＦＰＳＳ中采用的随机概率模拟方法，即以累积量法为基础的采用高阶正交多项式逼近等效负荷持续曲线的新方法。该方法中，采用递推公式计算高阶累积量和多种正交多项展开式，突破了以往商业化电力生产模拟软件中只能用６阶累积量的局限，从而在保持累积量法快速性的同时，得出了高精度的失荷率和缺电量的模拟计算结果。

A cumulant based probahilistic simula-tion method used in package FEPSS(Faxt ElectricityProduction Simulation Systme)is introduced in thispaper.The equivalent load duration curves are ap-proximated using recursive algorithm of higher ordercumulants and higher order orthogonal polynomial ex-pansions.This new method goes beyond the limitationof 6 cumulants used in most commercial productionsimulation packages and ensures higher accuracy ofsimulation results of LOLP and expected unserved en-ergy while keeping fast property of cumulant method.