核电厂事故后果的概率安全评价方法学

PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT METHOKOLOGY

本文主要介绍概率安全评价（ＰＳＡ）中的事故后果评价（ＡＣＡ）方法学以及与此相关的内容，如ＡＣＡ输入的源项、模式参数对后果的影响、评价ＡＣＡ结果的概率安全准则；同时结合广东大亚湾核电站ＰＳＡ中的后果和风险分析，说明ＡＣＡ中模式和参数的使用。文中还列举说明了ＡＣＡ在应急计划中的应用。

The probabilistic methodology in PSA for assessing the off-site radiological consequences of accidental release of radioactivity(ACA)and some recent developments in ACAareas are described in this paper.The accident source terms and their frequencies,uncertaintyand probabilistic safety criteria(PSC)associated with ACA and some applications of ACA inemergency planning are discussed.The selection of the models and parameters used in DayaBay Nuclear Power Plant PSA are presented to illustrate ACA calcuation.