新疆渭干河黑孜水库月径流随机数学模型的建立

A STOCHASTIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF MONTHLY RUNOFF OF HEIZI RESERVOIR ON THE OGAN RIVER

通过应用相关解集模型，建立了泪干河黑孜水库的月径流随机数学模型．通过长系列的月径流可进行水库的各种丰枯水序列组合情况下的调节运算，从而为水库的设计和管理服务．相关解集模型还可根据水库调节需要，进一步将月径流再分解为旬径流，其方法与原理与年径流分解为月径流相同．最后，文章对建立的月径流随机数学模型进行了分析和检验，结果令人满意．

Stochastic hydrology is a new field of hydrology, and more and more used in practice.on the basis of Heizi Reservoir stochashc mathematical inodel (SMM) of annual runors the paper has further separated annual runoff series of Heizi Reservoir into monthly runoff series and established a stochastic mathemahcal model of monthly runoff of Heizi Reservoir by using correlative decompositidh model (CDM)' Because there is a long series of monthly runoff water data under various conditions are understood and can be useful to the design and management of the reservoir. Finally, the model is tested and analyzed in the paper. Its result is satisfactory.