未来气候对南疆东部的影响

EFFECT OF COMING CLIMATE ON THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH XINJIANG

本文通过对未来气候的变化趋势的分析，对东昆仑山区和南疆东部的局部气候进行推测，并对由此而产生的影响进行了评述．

1. The air temperature will go up and the climate will tend to warm in the eastern part of South Xinjiang. So the precipitation will not obviously increase, soil humudity will decrease, melt of glaciers in the Eastern Kunlun Mountain and the Altun Mountain will become violent, and surface runoff will decline.2. Growth period of crops will lengthen for over 15 days at the eastern part of South Xinjiang, boundary line of crop growth will shift towards north for 3-5 degrees in latitude,and accumulated temperature of >10℃ will increase for about 500℃.3. Under the condition of the increase of CO2 concentration (from 350 ppmv to 400ppmv) and unchanged other conditions, the crop yield will increase for 5%. Taking the yield of Qiemo County and Ruoqiang County in 1992 as the base, 1661t of grain, 134t of cotton and 67t of oil grain will be increased up to 2020, and aftcr 2020, wheat and cotton ytelds will be increased for 0.07-0.13% respectively with the increase of cvery one ppmv of CO2.4. Countermcasures and suggeshons: the utilizing coemcient of the irrigation system should be raised, the water used for organisms' habits should be put on an important position, and the proportion of the water distribution of forestry, agriculturc and animal husbandry is 4: 3: 2.