温度影响甘蔗种苗萌发进度的数学模型建立及其在生产上的应用

Establishment of Regression Models between Temperature and Caneseed Germination Progress and Their Application on Sugarcane Production

用八种数学模型筛选出无灌溉蔗地温度与萌发末期发生所需天数的数学模型（1）ynf=489．421－29．694X＋0．458x2和灌溉蔗地模型（2）y1=223．255－4．909X－0．138x2；应用模型（1）（2）可以供生产者选择最佳种植期、确定经济有效的萌发期（种苗）处理措施和采取恰当的栽培技术措施，并提供给生产决策者评估采用哪一种技术措施更经济合算和可以从数量上预测苗期提高温度的措施如地膜覆盖有效生长期延长量及产量增长量。通过模型的建立，提出要使甘蔗获得丰产，低温蔗区必须在蔗种萌发期实施提高温度的措施和淋水或灌溉蔗地。

The significant regression models (1) yni=489. 421 - 29. 694x + 0.458x2 for none - irrigat-ed canefield and (2) yi = 223. 255 - 4. 909x - 0.138x2 for irrigated between daily average temperature(x) and days in the period of caneseed germination (y) are chosen from eight standard mathematicalmodels. The models may be applied to selecting the best planting season, and more economical and effective treatment measure for sugarcane seed or in the period of germination and more suitable cultivation measures. They are also applied to valuing what kind of technical measures is more economical. Itis possible that the models are used to predict extended days of effective growth period and incrementof cane yield through treatment measure of raising temperature in the period of germination. It is suggested that raising temperature and irrigating seedcane should be appllied for bumper sugarcane harvestin cane production area of lower germination temperature.