慢性病毒性肝炎预后多因素Cox模型分析

Analysis of Factors Affecting on The Prog-nosis of Chronic Viral Hepatitls By Multi-factor Cox Regression Model

本文应用Ｃｏｘ模型对ｌｌ３例慢性病毒性肝炎预后影响因素进行了综合分析。结果表明对慢性病毒性肝炎预后有显著影响的因素是：乙肝合并丙型肝炎病毒感染、并发病、餐后２小时血糖异常、ＡＦＰ阳性及ＰＴ延长。上述各因素的相对危险度依次为：１４．６７、１１．５０、５．２２、２．６６和２．１１倍。预测值可靠性分析显示：敏感度＝８６．９％、特异度＝８２．７％、符合率＝８５．８％。

The factors affecting on theprognosis of 113 patients with chronic viralhepatitis were analysed by multifactor Coxregression model in this paper.The resultsuggested that hepatitis B coexisited withhepatitis C virus,complicating diseases,abnormal blood sugar in two hours aftermeal,positive alpha-fetoprotein,prolon-gation of prothrombin time,were the signif-icant factors which affected on the prognosisof chronic viral hepatitis in the 24 factorsstudied.The relative risk of the above men-tioned factors were 14.67,11.50,5.22,2.66 and 2.11 respectively.The analysis ofpredictive reliability showed that the sensi-tivity,specificity and coincidence rate were86.9%,82.7%and 85.8%respectively.