江苏沛县流行性出血热10年监测结果分析

Analysis of 10 year surveillance of EHF inPeixian county,Jiangsu province

沛县ＥＨＦ１０年监测结果表明：沛县ＥＨＦ可全年发病，１～２月开始上升，３～５月为发病高峰季节，呈春季单峰型，其发病率与流行高峰前的人群隐性感染率呈负相关关系（ｒ＝－０．８７０１Ｐ＜０．０５），与优势鼠种褐家鼠的带病毒鼠指数量高度正相关关系（ｒ＝０．９６４１Ｐ＜０．０１），并提示在ＥＨＦ流行高峰前测定优势鼠种的带病毒鼠指数。

The paper reports 10 year EHFsurveillance in Peixian county,Jiangsu province. Theresults showed that EHF occured all over the year,but,the epidemic peak was only from March to Mayin each year.By simple correlation analysis,it isrevealed that there ex isted a negative correlationbrtween the EHF morbid ity a nd the population withinapparent infection(r=0.7081,P <0.05);therewas a positive correlation between the EHF morhdityand the index of brown rat carrying EHF virus(r=0.9641,P<0.01).In addition, according to ourfindings we think that the epidemiological intensity ofthe disease is predicted by determining thepredominant rat's species carrying EHF virus beforeepidemie peak.