国际地震预测研究进展与动向

PROGRESS AND TENDENCY IN THE RESEARCH ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN THE WORLD

地震预测是世界公认的科学难题，本文对地震预测的难点作了简要分析，并指出其实质在于缺乏对地震发生规律性的认识。文中较详细地介绍了近些年来欧洲、日本、美国和俄罗斯在地震预测研究方面的进展。实际情况表明，国际上虽对地震预测研究还存在着种种不同意见，但地震预测研究仍在扎扎实实地取得进展，然而，要期望取得突破，尚需做出长期不懈的努力。

Earthquake prediction is a difficult problem generally acknowledged by the world. This paper briefly analyzes the difficult points of earthquake prediction, and points out that the crux of the matter is lack of understanding the law of earthquake occurrence. The author depicts in more de tail the progress made in earthquake prediction research in Erope, Japan, U' S. A, Russia in recent years. The actual situation shows that although various different ideas about earthquake predic tion research still exist in the world, progress has been made in a down-to-earth manner in this field. However, if we place hope on making a breakthrough in earthquake prediction research, we need to make long and unremitting efforts.