摘要
90年代世界石油市场有5个主要特点:(1)石油市场供需双方的内部结构发生了重大变化。欧佩克成员国由13个变为12个,产量配额比例也有较大调整。非欧佩克两个最大的产油国产量下降,但其他国家的产量呈上升趋势。(2)欧佩克控制市场的能力进一步减弱。(3)油价下滑,与18美元/桶的合理油价水平相比,呈中等偏低水平。(4)石油市场中调节油价的手段增多,从供给方面分析大体有4种,即:动用库存,全球低价选购,制裁和禁运,以及罢工。(5)石油期货市场的影响力增强,现货油价越来越受到期货油价的左右。
During the 1990's, five major features characterized the world oil market:
(1) In the world crude oil market, structural changes in both supply and demand occurred. The number of OPEC member countries fell from 13 to 12, and OPEC production quota shares were adjusted. In non-OPEC countries, the crude production in the 2 largest such countries-USA and FSU- declined , while that of others tended to increase;
(2) OPEC's control over the market was further weakened;
(3) The price of crude oil fell continuously, with the current price slightly lower than $18/b-the generally accepted rational level ;
(4) Measures taken to adjust oil prices were diversified. These measures, taking the demand side for example, can be roughly divided into four categories: drawing on stock, purchasing oil at the international market's lowest price, adopting sanctions and tactics of embargoing,and going on strike;
(5) The influence of the paper (futures) oil market increased, with the physical (spot) price more and more dependent on the futures price
出处
《国际石油经济》
1995年第5期1-6,22,共7页
International Petroleum Economics
