亚洲发展中国家油品需求预测

Forecast of Oil Demand in Asian Developing Nations

随着经济的快速发展,亚洲地区的石油需求将进一步增长。预计1990～2010年亚洲发展中国家和地区(未包括中国大陆)石油需求的年均增长率为5％,其中泰国、印尼和韩国的石油需求增长更快。1990～2010年亚洲发展中国家的石油产品需求结构将发生变化,各种产品所占比例的变化为:石脑油由5.64％升至8.54％,车用汽油从10.29％升至12.91％,柴油由32.07％升至40.55％,喷气燃料和煤油所占比例有所下降,燃料油的比例将大幅度下降;轻质油品的需求将占总需求的?5％;中间馏分短缺将难以避免,需要从中东等地进口。

Oil demand in the Asian region will continue to increase in pace with the region's rapid economic development. It is forecast that demand for oil in Asian developing nations, not including the People's Republic of China, will increase at a rate of 5 % between 1990 and 2010, with the greatest increase occurring in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea. Changes will also be seen in the structure of demand for oil products. Demand for naphtha will increase from 10. 29% to 12. 91% of total demand, . and diesel from 32. 07% to 40. 55%. Proportional demand for other products such as jet fuel and kerosene will also increase dramatically. By the year 2010, demand for light oil products will account for 75% of total demand. There will be an inevitable gap in supply of middle distillates, which will have to be imported from the Middle East or other regions.