摘要
对失效概率Ｐ提出了一种新的先验分布，并在此条件下，用多层贝叶斯方法估计了船舶寿命的失效概率。在假定船舶寿命从Ｗｅｉｂｌｌ分布的条件下，对船舶寿命的可靠度进行了加权最小二乘估计．
By investigating large-seale ships consequently，we heve got two series of zero-failure data for ship service life，This article suggests a new prior distribution for failureprobability p，adn under this condition，estimates failure probability of ship service life by herarchical Bayesian analysis.Under the condition that ship servicelife fits for Weibuldistribution，we make a weighted least squqres estimation of ship service life reliability.
基金
中国船舶总公司可靠性基础理论基金
