利用灰色系统方法预测冰情

A Grey System Forecasting Method Used to Forecast the Sea ice Condition

本文利用灰色系统方法进行海冰年际预报。该方法不依赖于天文、气象等因素，而是利用历年的冰情等级数据列建立ＧＭ（１·ｌ）模式。该预报方法也可以预报重冰年。

A grey system forecasting method used to forecast the interannual sea ice condi-tion is presented.The forecasting method does not depend upon the information on astronomyand meteorology,but the GM (1·1) model was built up using historical sea ice condition series.The forecasting method also may be applied to the severe sea ice condition.