利用输沙量预测现代黄河三角洲的面积增长

PREDICTION OF MODERN HUANGHE RIVER DELTA AREA INCREMENT BY USING THE SEDIMENT DISCHARGE

依据1976-1989年黄河亚三角洲的面积数据及其相应年份的利津站黄河来沙量，利用单输入，单输出的线性系统模型对黄河三角洲的面积增长进行动态预测研究。结果表明，这一线性系统模型能较好地反映黄河三角洲的面积增长规律，且优于灰色系统的GM（1，1）模型。

Based on the modern Huanghe River Delta area data and the river sedimentdischarge data measured at the Lijin Hydrometric Station from 1976 to 1989,dynamic prediction of the delta area increment is made by using a single input andsingle output linear system model whose first order equation is as follows:where α( ), β( ), γ( ) are gray parameters; P(t), Q(t) are system input andoutput. Assuming the river's course to be unchanged and using this equation, thepredicted river-caused delta area increment from 1990 to 2000 will be about 250-350km2. The calculated result also shows that the model used here can describe theregularity of the delta area increment with good fitting to the real area increment.The model is much better than the Grey System Model GM(1, 1) used before.